Independent Voter Support for Trump Shows Noticeable Decline in New Polling Review
A new review of national polling data suggests President Donald Trump is facing growing challenges among independent voters, a group that often plays a major role in determining the outcome of elections. The analysis, released Friday and based on AP-NORC polling conducted throughout Trump’s second term, found that support among independents has weakened significantly since the 2024 election.
According to the review, the decline has been especially noticeable among independent voters who do not have a college degree. Around the time of the 2024 election, nearly half of these voters viewed Trump positively. By the spring of 2026, that figure had dropped to approximately 31%, reflecting a substantial shift in sentiment within a voting bloc that had previously provided important support.
The analysis found that independent voters now hold similarly negative views of the president regardless of educational background. Researchers noted that support among independents has steadily decreased since Trump returned to the White House, while opinions among Republicans and Democrats have remained largely unchanged.
The polling review also identified declining support among several smaller groups of independent voters that had moved toward Trump during the 2024 campaign. Black independents and younger independents both showed reduced levels of support over time. The findings were particularly striking among Hispanic independents. Favorable views of Trump among this group stood at 46% around the 2024 election period. That number later fell sharply and has recovered only slightly, reaching roughly one-quarter of respondents during the spring polling period.
Political analysts involved in the review said that changes among independent voters deserve close attention because independents often react more directly to current events and government performance than voters with strong party affiliations. As a result, shifts within this group can provide an early indication of broader public concerns.
The analysis suggests that economic issues may be driving much of the dissatisfaction. During the 2024 election cycle, many independents who supported Trump identified inflation as the most important factor influencing their vote. However, more recent polling indicates that only about three in ten independents approve of the president’s handling of inflation and related economic concerns.
Researchers involved in the review noted that independent voters have continued to adjust their opinions as events unfold, unlike Republican and Democratic voters whose views have remained relatively stable. This pattern highlights the unique role independents play in shaping the political landscape and responding to changes in government performance.
The findings could carry important implications for future elections. Political observers often view midterm elections as a measure of public satisfaction with the party in power. Analysts said that even modest declines in support among independent voters could create challenges for both President Trump and Republican candidates as future election cycles approach.
The review was based on responses from 4,836 Americans who identify as independents and drew from 21 AP-NORC polls conducted between July 2024 and April 2026. Researchers concluded that the most significant movement in public opinion continues to come from independent voters, making them one of the most closely watched groups in American politics.
Sources
- Associated Press (AP)
- NORC at the University of Chicago
- AP-NORC Polling Analysis
