Senate Battleground Poll Signals Economic Concerns Could Create Challenges for Republicans
A new statewide poll suggests that voter concerns about the economy and President Donald Trump’s approval ratings could make several Republican-held Senate seats more competitive ahead of the November elections.
The latest survey, conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, examined six key Senate battleground states where Democrats are considered to have their strongest opportunities to gain Republican seats. The states included in the polling are Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.
Although President Trump carried each of these six states by an average of about eight percentage points during the 2024 presidential election, the new polling shows a much tighter contest in the Senate races. Across all six states combined, support is evenly split, with Democrats and Republicans each receiving 47% support among likely voters.
The results indicate that several races remain highly competitive, with only narrow margins separating the candidates.
In North Carolina, Democratic candidate Roy Cooper holds a noticeable advantage with 50% support, compared with 43% for Republican Michael Whatley. Maine also shows a close race, where Democrat Graham Platner leads Republican Susan Collins by 49% to 47%.
Texas remains completely tied, with Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton each receiving 47% support from likely voters.
Republicans continue to maintain slim leads in three other battleground states. In Alaska, Republican Dan Sullivan receives 47% support compared with 45% for Democrat Mary Peltola. Iowa shows Republican Ashley Hinson ahead with 48%, while Democrat Josh Turek follows closely at 46%. In Ohio, Republican Jon Husted leads Democrat Sherrod Brown by a margin of 50% to 47%.
Beyond the individual Senate contests, the poll also examined how voters view President Trump’s overall job performance and the impact of his policies.
Across the six battleground states, Trump’s average job approval stands at 43%, while 54% of respondents said they disapprove of his performance. The findings suggest that the president’s standing with voters could influence competitive Senate races in states that have traditionally favored Republicans.
When asked about the effects of Trump’s policies on their state, 46% of likely voters said the policies have hurt people where they live. By comparison, 32% said the policies have helped residents, while another 20% said they have neither helped nor hurt.
Economic issues continue to play a major role in voter opinions. The survey found that 56% of respondents disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 42% approve of his economic performance.
The poll also points to a significant Democratic advantage among voters who identify the economy as their top issue. According to the survey, Democrats lead Republicans by 14 percentage points within that group. Additionally, Democrats receive support from 63% of voters who describe current economic conditions as either poor or fair.
The polling was conducted between June 15 and June 29 among 3,659 likely voters across Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. The survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points for likely voters.
While Election Day remains months away, the latest results suggest that economic concerns and presidential approval ratings may play an important role in determining the outcome of several closely watched Senate contests.
Sources
- The New York Times
- Siena College Poll
