Cato Institute Responds After Trump Highlights Immigration Data, Clarifies Legal Entry Figures
The debate over U.S. immigration policy has intensified after President Donald Trump shared data from the Cato Institute highlighting a sharp drop in legal asylum-related entries at official border points. The libertarian think tank has now responded, stressing that its research is based on factual reporting and that the figures shared do not represent illegal immigration trends.
According to the Cato Institute, the data referenced by President Trump showed a significant decline in the number of asylum seekers entering through official ports of entry along the U.S.-Mexico border. The figures indicate that legal entries dropped from 48,713 in December 2024, during the final month of President Joe Biden’s administration, to 3,361 in February 2025. The institute also reported that this lower level has remained relatively consistent, with 3,018 legal entries recorded in February 2026.
Following Trump’s social media post on Truth Social, where he used the chart to support his argument that his administration had strengthened border control, the Cato Institute addressed the interpretation of its findings. David J. Bier, who leads immigration studies at the institute, stated that the organization does not adjust its findings to support or oppose political figures. He emphasized that the institute publishes data regardless of political outcomes and has criticized or praised leaders across administrations when warranted.
Bier further clarified an important distinction in the data being discussed. He explained that the figures shared by President Trump specifically relate to asylum seekers who presented themselves at official ports of entry and followed legal procedures to request protection. These are not illegal border crossings, but rather individuals complying with established immigration law.
He noted that the reduction reflects a sharp decline in legal asylum processing rather than unauthorized migration. According to Bier, the data shows a 99.9% decrease in this category, which he argues represents legal entry processes rather than unlawful immigration activity. He also suggested that these legal pathways have historically been part of the broader immigration system intended to manage migration in an orderly way.
The Cato Institute’s broader research also points to a significant decrease in other forms of legal immigration during Trump’s second term. Refugee admissions have reportedly fallen by nearly 90%, dropping from 12,518 in December 2024 to 1,341 in March 2026. The institute attributes this decline to policy changes that initially suspended refugee admissions and later restarted them under limited eligibility conditions.
In addition, policy decisions affecting visa processing for multiple countries and restrictions on permanent residency programs have contributed to a broader reduction in legal immigration flows. Cato researchers estimate that legal immigration has decreased at a faster rate than illegal immigration during this period, with legal entries accounting for a major share of the overall decline.
While President Trump has repeatedly stated that his administration supports legal immigration and prioritizes only the reduction of illegal border crossings, the institute’s analysis suggests that policy measures have also significantly impacted lawful immigration channels.
The ongoing discussion highlights a broader national debate over how immigration statistics are interpreted and how policy changes affect both legal and illegal migration trends. As both policymakers and research organizations continue to examine the data, differences in interpretation remain central to the public conversation on U.S. immigration reform.
Sources:
Cato Institute Immigration Studies Data and Publications
Statements from Cato Institute Immigration Research Division
Public Statements and Press Communications from U.S. Federal Executive Office
U.S. Immigration and Asylum Statistical Records (Official Border Entry Data)
