Why Some New Jersey Democrats Are Growing Uneasy About Mikie Sherrill’s Campaign

Most public polls show Democratic Mikie Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by several points in New Jersey’s high-stakes 2025 governor contest. Her party members secretly worry that the campaign may lose with that edge. They fear the campaign’s ability to turn out voters on Election Day, not her viewpoint.

The former Navy helicopter pilot became U.S. Representative Sherrill advocates moderate suburb affordability, education, and infrastructure. Strong fundraising, a high-profile national Democratic investment, and internal polling give her an edge, her team claims. Many personal and external variables cause anxiety. Insiders say off-year election turnout, especially in low-enthusiasm settings, can erode any advantage, and Sherrill’s primary momentum may not carry over to the general election.

Urban and majority-Black Democratic bases are essential, but Sherrill’s campaign has struggled to generate grassroots energy. Younger voters and working-class urbanites may react differently to midterm elections, increasing concerns about complacency. Veteran Democratic strategists warn that a secure advantage in September does not prevent a difficult November if turnout drops. Her margin is narrowing in surveys.

The national Democratic machine has spent millions on the New Jersey governorship contest to sustain momentum for future elections. Some believe this investment increases resources but also pressure and scrutiny of any stumble. Party operatives say the campaign’s precise and controlled strategy sometimes sacrifices spontaneous voter interaction and emotional resonance, which are crucial to driving turnout in a state where almost half of eligible voters may skip a gubernatorial battle.

Democrats think Sherrill’s pragmatic administration and state financial stabilization may appeal to moderates but not enough to overcome turnout disadvantages. They suggest more community involvement, better events in low-turnout neighborhoods, and a stronger economy and working class focus for her campaign. The campaign must motivate less visible supporters, battle Republican falsehoods, and prevent mid-cycle voter drop-off to win in the final weeks.

Sherrill is in a strong position heading into the home stretch, but New Jersey Democrats worry that a dip in enthusiasm might sink the campaign. Polling strength may not be enough to win votes for the campaign.

Sources:
New Jersey Monitor
WHYY
The Inquirer
New York Post