Trump’s Troop Deployment Strategy May Backfire Politically, Analysts Warn
Trump’s idea to send National Guard troops to Portland is gaining attention, but data analysts warn it could hurt him politically. CNN’s senior statistical analyst Harry Enten reports that 58 percent of Americans oppose sending the National Guard to cities, while 42 percent support it. That discrepancy, he says, shows Trump’s decision may not resonate with the people and lower approval ratings.
Enten uses examples to demonstrate. When Trump dispatched troops to Los Angeles earlier this year, his approval rating plummeted by four percent and his immigration rating dropped by seven points, turning one of his strongest issues into a liability. He also observes that ICE’s net negative approval rating is minus 14, indicating widespread distrust. While Trump may think the deployment is a winning topic, Enten warns that the statistics suggests “it’s in fact a political loser.”
Trump ordered Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to defend “war ravaged Portland” and federal immigration facilities supposedly besieged by Antifa and other domestic groups. The administration did not deploy active-duty forces, unlike the Los Angeles move, which sent 700 Marines. Officials have considered more Chicago deployments, but none have occurred.
Oregon reacted quickly and forcefully. Governor Tina Kotek has openly opposed federal action, saying the state can handle public safety without military help. She stressed that no real national security danger warrants troop entry into a calm city. Portland’s leadership agreed, saying the city’s present conditions don’t resemble prior turmoil and that federal interference could inflame friction.
Oregon and Portland sued to stop deployment, calling the federal action illegal. The court challenge claims that the president’s portrayal of Portland as besieged is based on inaccurate or outdated visuals, not the reality. They say it violates state sovereignty and federal military authority.
Legal experts have warned about potential issues with the Posse Comitatus Act, which limits military intervention in domestic law enforcement. The administration invokes federal power and precedents, but its plans are legally questionable, especially since rules allow military intervention only to safeguard federal property, not cities.
The Portland deployment may reflect earlier federal overreaches, say Trump critics. Oregon critics say the decision was politically timed and overblown to show urgency. If the courts decide with state litigants, the government risks losing a legal battle and public trust in its law-and-order approach.
Polling, legal, and political trends will determine whether this latest effort becomes a problem in the coming weeks. Analysts now see the National Guard deployment to Portland as a strategic mistake rather than a law-and-order move.
Sources
CNN reports, Harry Enten analysis
Associated Press coverage
The Guardian, Washington Post, Politico reporting
