Tight 2028 presidential race looms as early poll pits Vance versus Newsom

A new national survey suggests a tight race between Republican Vice President JD Vance and Democrat California Governor Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election. Emerson College Polling found about equal support for both candidates among registered voters, with Vance at 46% and Newsom at 45%, with 10% undecided. The margin of error is shown as ±3%.

The study also shows that Newsom has gained 3 percentage points since July, while Vance has gained 1 point. However, the results are almost same from August, when each contender received 44% of the vote. The deadlock shows that people are stuck in their ways and that the national mood may matter more than short-term fluctuations.

As President Donald Trump is unable to pursue a third term according to the 22nd Amendment, speculation has centered on his successor. Vance and Newsom are considered frontrunners for their party’ selections despite not campaigning. On the generic congressional ballot, 44% of respondents plan to vote for Democrats, 43% for Republicans, and 14% are unsure, according to the poll. Poll director Spencer Kimball said that the 2026 midterms and hypothetical 2028 showdown remain steady, indicating a severely polarized electorate where specific concerns may not yet change the balance. Kimball said that whether voter behavior will change due to democracy challenges or economic anxiety remains to be seen.

The October 13–14 poll included 1,000 registered voters. The early findings suggest a close nationwide race before campaign declarations. The tight early figures imply that 2028 could be one of the most contested presidential campaigns in recent history, with both parties likely to argue economic direction and institutional trust.

Sources
Emerson College Polling national survey (August 2025)
Economic Times article detailing October poll
RealClearPolitics archive for 2028 matchup