This MAGA Activist Claims Republicans Are ‘Fleeing’ N.J. Here’s What the Numbers Actually Say

Conservative activist Scott Presler’s accusation shook New Jersey’s politics. After Mikie Sherrill’s November 4 gubernatorial win, Presler warned Republicans are abandoning the state. Presler posted an Instagram photo of a couple happily moving from New Jersey to Pennsylvania, suggesting a Republican exodus.

No evidence was presented by Early Vote Action PAC founder Presler. He boldly said conservative New Jersey and New York voters could flip Pennsylvania Republican.

Official New Jersey voter registration data contradicts. Oct. 1 saw 38% of state voters are Democrats. Republican voter share is 25%. Recently, Republican registration has increased despite this gap. Democrats lost about 51,000 voters while Republicans gained 164,000 in the past four years, according to the California Division of Elections.

These figures refute Presler’s claim that the GOP departed NJ. Recent GOP state races have proven competitive. Harris defeated Trump by six points in New Jersey in 2024. The closest a Republican had been to winning the state since 1992, when Bush lost to Clinton by two points.

Presler, who has campaigned door-to-door for Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli, welcomed the GOP registration increase. Presler projected Ciattarelli will win governor before Election Day.

Sherrill beat Ciattarelli by 14 points despite these developments and Trump’s support. Five Trump-supporting counties switched to Democrats, making New Jersey more Democratic than in 2024.

Former President Trump influenced the race, exit surveys reveal. Research showed that 41% of voters were influenced by Trump opposition and 97% picked Sherrill. Republican registration rose, but Trump and national politics impacted New Jersey voting.

Presler’s assertions of Republican flight from New Jersey have garnered social media attention, but voter data and election results suggest otherwise. Democratic state and national leaders still influence elections, but the GOP has grown its voting base. Republican emigration myths are disproved by competitive Democratic New Jersey.

Sources:

• New Jersey Division of Elections

• State voter registration reports

• Exit poll data by independent research firms