Sherrill Maintains Slim Edge Over Ciattarelli as Trump’s Shadow Casts Influence in New Jersey Governor’s Race

The New Jersey governorship contest between Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli is close, and new data demonstrates how much former President Donald Trump still influences voters. A recent Rutgers-Eagleton Polling Center research found that 50% of likely voters back Sherrill and 45% oppose Ciattarelli. The race’s risk is highlighted by this tiny edge.

The campaign’s final outcome hinges on voter turnout and behavior. The study indicated 52% of respondents said Trump affects their governorship choice. Democrats get 78%, Republicans 38%. 42% of independents say Trump impacts them. Parties back Sherrill (95% Democrats) and Ciattarelli (94% Republicans). Independents vote 49% for Sherrill, 40% for Ciattarelli.

Further research shows that women prefer Sherrill 18 points more than men, while Ciattarelli does less. Educationally educated voters choose Sherrill 61 percent to 35 percent, while those with some college prefer Ciattarelli 55 percent to 38 percent. White non-Hispanic voters choose Ciattarelli (53% to 46%) and nonwhite voters prefer Sherrill (59% to 29%). Seniors choose Sherrill 61% to 36%, while 35-49-year-olds prefer Ciattarelli. Sherrill oversees education, transportation, and health care; Ciattarelli manages economics, jobs, state budget, and taxation. Crime and safety favor Ciattarelli.

State elections are influenced by national politics. Blue New Jersey’s Trump effect indicates state politics are nationalized. Winning candidates and national politics are considered. Most voters think Trump matters in this governor’s race, suggesting federal politics, messaging, and branding hurt both candidates.

More engaged voters will evaluate campaign tactics in the last weeks. Sherrill’s lead may vary due to turnout, independent voter swings, and last-minute alterations. Ciattarelli’s economic, tax, and public safety themes may resonate if his party mobilizes. However, Sherrill must capitalize on Trump and maintain her lead among women, college-educated, elderly, and nonwhite voters.

The New Jersey governor’s campaign is watched nationally. While Sherrill leads, Ciattarelli is close. This close race may hinge on Trump’s legacy.

Sources
Rutgers-Eagleton Poll results and analysis
FDU Poll findings
NJBiz coverage of New Jersey gubernatorial race