New Poll Sparks Serious Concerns Inside Trump’s GOP as Democrats Show Surging Momentum
Republican concerns are rising as a recent national survey shows a political landscape that is much more difficult for former President Donald Trump’s party heading into the 2026 midterms.
According to new polling data from Marquette Law School, Democratic candidates have a significant lead among registered voters, and that lead grows even more when considering Americans who are certain to vote. While the data are preliminary, they suggest the GOP may have an uphill battle.
In the 2026 midterms, 49% of registered voters plan to support a Democratic candidate. Republicans are 44% behind. But the major shift comes when looking at truly committed voters: 53% plan to vote Democrat, compared to 44% Republican. The enthusiasm gap may be a red flag for experts.
The tone of independent voters, who often decide midterm races, is remarkable. Democrats perform much better in this critical bloc, according to the poll. Independents favor Democrats 38% over Republicans 17%. Many independents—39%—say they are not aligned with either major party, which could change based on national events, local issues, or election turnout.
The poll surveyed 903 registered voters, including 602 likely voters. The survey has a usual margin of error, but Democrats appear to be ahead, especially among more engaged or educated voters.
Political observers say the results reflect national electorate trends. The Democratic coalition’s expanding college-educated and high-propensity voters may give it a surprise turnout edge in 2026, according to some experts. This reverses the trend of Republicans benefiting more from midterm voter enthusiasm.
CNN analyst Harry Enten said the data should wake Republicans up. He called the polls “truly frightening” for the party and indicated the data’s significance has not been fully understood. According to him, GOP strategists may underestimate Democrats’ newfound drive.
The Marquette findings are not unique. Another globally renowned study released this week shows Democrats leading a hypothetical 2026 congressional battle by double digits. That poll found 55 percent support for Democratic candidates and 41 percent for Republicans, indicating greater momentum.
With over two years until elections, political landscapes can change drastically. Democrats are gaining strength as Republicans are under pressure to change course. If the excitement trend continues, the GOP may face a tougher election environment than expected, requiring new messaging, greater coalition-building, and a sharper focus on independent voters who could decide Congress.
As the 2026 midterms approach, both parties will watch these early indicators. Democrats are encouraged by the numbers. They may indicate that Republicans need to lay the groundwork quickly.
Sources:
Marquette Law School Poll
PBS News/NPR/Marist Poll
