New National Poll Signals Strong Democratic Voter Energy Heading Into 2026 Midterm Elections

A recent national study reveals Democrats have a big voter enthusiasm edge heading into the 2026 midterm elections. Democratic and Republican voters differ in their certainty about voting, putting early political pressure on President Donald Trump’s Republican Party.

The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll of 2,087 registered voters from February 12 to 17 revealed that 66% are “absolutely certain” they will vote in the 2026 midterms. However, party allegiance divides the numbers. The survey found that 79 percent of Democrats were positive they would vote, compared to 65 percent of Republicans and 56 percent of independents.

Democrats outnumber Republicans by 14 percentage points among likely voters. Analysts say this is the largest Democratic enthusiasm lead since 2006. Democrats took control of the House in 2018, although voter certainty was just 5 points higher at the same period.

The poll also shows discrepancies between Kamala Harris and Trump backers. 85 percent of Harris supporters plan to vote in the elections. Conversely, 70% of Trump voters were certain. The difference widens among 18-39-year-old voters. In that age bracket, 77 percent of Harris voters are certain to vote, compared to 51 percent of Trump voters.

These numbers arrive during political activity. Since President Trump began his second term in January 2025, Democrats have won numerous critical races nationwide. Despite these successes, congressional control is difficult to reclaim. Democrats must flip three seats in 2026 to retake the House majority. The Republicans would need to win at least two seats in states President Trump won in 2024 to retake the Senate.

Voters’ party preferences were measured using the generic congressional ballot question, which asks which party they support without naming candidates. Overall, 47% of respondents supported a Democrat and 45% a Republican. 55 percent of likely voters supported Democrats, compared to 44 percent for Republicans.

The poll gives an early political snapshot more than a year before the midterms with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points among registered voters. Both parties’ political strategists examine early signs like these to adjust fundraising, messaging, and outreach plans as voter excitement fluctuates when campaigns increase and economic or national circumstances change.

President performance is generally assessed in midterm elections. Midterm congressional campaigns have often challenged the White House party. However, turnout intensity, especially among younger and independent voters, can determine outcomes.

Democrats and Republicans will likely mobilize their core supporters and compete for undecided and independent voters in 2026. The enthusiasm difference implies Democrats are energetic, but political watchers warn that voter opinion can alter before elections.