JD Vance Trails Josh Shapiro in New Pennsylvania Poll for 2028 Race

A new statewide survey puts Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro ahead of Vice President JD Vance in a 2028 presidential race, demonstrating his growing popularity in a key battlefield.

Quinnipiac University found Shapiro leading Vance 53 percent to 43 percent of Pennsylvania registered voters. Most Democrats support Shapiro and most Republicans support Vance, according to the poll. Shapiro led independents 58 percent to 33 percent, highlighting his edge.

Shapiro was more liked than Vance overall. The poll indicated 58 percent of Pennsylvania voters like Shapiro and 28 percent dislike him. Vance is less popular, with 43% favoring and 47% opposing.

Shapiro’s governorship approval is at its highest since Quinnipiac began measuring in 2023, boosting his Democratic Party stature. 60 percent of voters approve of Shapiro’s performance, while 28 percent disagree. As Shapiro completes his third year in office, curiosity about his national ambitions grows.

Shapiro outpaced Republican Stacy Garrity 55 percent to 39 percent in a 2026 gubernatorial reelection poll. His continuous lead implies he has broad support beyond his party.

Vance is leading early Republican primary polls for 2028, but Pennsylvania figures suggest he may struggle in swing states if Shapiro runs. Pennsylvanians approve of former President Donald Trump 43% and disapprove 54%, according to the survey.

The poll was conducted September 25–29 among 1,579 Pennsylvania registered voters. It has a 3.3 percent error margin.

Sources

Quinnipiac University Polling Data
Recent Pennsylvania Voter Surveys