Here’s what Democrats can use as a ‘political cudgel’ over Trump’s GOP

The painful government shutdown until mid-November transformed Washington politics. Many believe Republicans are doing worse than Democrats. Political data analyst Harry Enten thinks the closure hampered the federal government and public opinion, which could damage the next election.

In the weeks after the shutdown ended on November 12, President Trump had some of his lowest approval ratings of his second term. He had -10 net approval before the shutdown. After weeks of stalled talks, public outrage, and a government shutdown, that figure dropped to minus fifteen, his presidency’s lowest. The shutdown hurt Trump politically, not empowered him as early figures suggested.

Party preferences for Congress are on the generic congressional ballot. Democrats improved. Democrats had a three-point lead before shutdown. Government led by five points when it resumed. Analysts say even little changes can alter close elections, especially when voter enthusiasm and independent support matter.

Eight Senate Democrats and Republicans voted to end the six-week closure. The Affordable Care Act health care subsidies extension vote was promised. No extension was guaranteed by Republican leaders in the House. That uncertainty puts them politically under strain.

Enten expects Democrats to argue strongly next year if subsidies stop. Polls suggest most Americans, even independents, support subsidies. Democrats may say Republicans contradict voter desires by using voter support. Enten thinks Democrats have a good “political cudgel” for campaign speeches.

He also noted Trump’s decreasing support and second-term low polling in the last 10 days. Several polls show his favor has plummeted since the closure, worrying Republicans as election season approaches.

The closure appears to have given Democrats electoral support for health care and a reason to vote against the GOP next year. Republicans must address important issues or risk losing power to Democrats.

Sources

CNN
Recent national polling data