Governor Races in New Jersey and Virginia Signal Warning Signs for GOP Ahead of 2025
The 2025 gubernatorial campaigns in New Jersey and Virginia are attracting national attention, and observers predict the results could affect politics. CNN analyst Harry Enten said Democrats’ dominance in both states is a warning sign for former President Donald Trump’s Republican Party.
Prediction markets favor Democrats in these races. In New Jersey, Democratic contender and U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill is the clear frontrunner with 90% likelihood of winning. Former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger is even stronger in Virginia, with more than a 90% chance of becoming governor. Both candidates have large polling advantages, unlike in 2021, when Democrats narrowly won New Jersey and Republicans won Virginia.
Enten noted that Democrats’ edge in both states is big and larger than last cycle’s polling. These races are “flashing red sirens” for the GOP, he said. He believes Democrats winning both states could signal a shift in momentum away from Republicans before the 2026 midterms.
These gubernatorial races matter across states. New Jersey and Virginia results have often predicted national politics. Enten noted that since 1989, in six of seven elections, one party has won both governorships in these two states and control of the U.S. House of Representatives. History suggests Democrats might regain or expand Congress if they win both races this year.
The stakes may seem distant for voters beyond New Jersey and Virginia, but analysts believe both races are predictive. Democrats’ performance in these states may predict national trends and the political atmosphere in 2026. Democrats are polling ahead, suggesting their odds are better than in previous comparable election years.
Enten also noted a Democratic trend. Democratic candidates have surpassed expectations in recent special elections, often by more than 15 points relative to Kamala Harris’ 2024 performance. This overperformance shows Democrats are winning in many districts, including Republican strongholds.
The similarities to previous election cycles are remarkable. Enten highlighted that the current polling results resemble 2017’s, when Democrats gained momentum before the 2018 midterms and retook the House. If that tendency repeats, the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections might be another Democratic wave.
Republicans face an obvious struggle. Despite Virginia electing Republican Glenn Youngkin four years ago and New Jersey nearly shifting in their direction in 2021, present factors predict a political shift. If Democrats win both states in November, it will solidify their influence in two critical governorships and test the Republican Party’s capacity to fight in a changing political landscape.
National observers will closely follow both races. The question is whether Republicans can defy polling trends or if Democrats can replicate triumphs that have led to broader national gains. This year’s events in New Jersey and Virginia may be the best indicator of American politics in 2026.
Sources
CNN
Prediction Markets Data
U.S. Election Historical Trends
