Early 2028 Republican Primary Poll Signals Strong Lead for JD Vance

Though the 2028 presidential election is more than two years away, early political signals are shaping the conversation. A new national poll suggests that one Republican candidate has a commanding early lead among GOP primary voters, setting the stage for a party-defining showdown.

Emerson College issued a survey this week showing that Vice President JD Vance has a big advantage over potential Republican presidential candidates in 2028. Of potential Republican primary voters, 52% would back Vance if the primary were conducted today. That puts him ahead of other party favorites.

Likely GOP voters supported Secretary of State Marco Rubio 20%. Other candidates lagged far behind. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis received 6%. HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 4%. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley received 3% and Senator Ted Cruz 1%. Undecided Republican voters made about 11% of the sample.

The poll also examined Republican primary independent voter support. Vance again led that category with 33% support, bolstering his early success outside core party voters.

Democratically, the situation is more uncertain. According to the same survey, Democratic primary voters are more divided and unsure about their party’s 2028 nominee. California Governor Gavin Newsom led Democrats with 20%. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has 16%. FVP Kamala Harris got 13%.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro received 7% and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9%. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear got 5%. Governors JB Pritzker and Gretchen Whitmer received 3% and 2%, respectively. Interestingly, 24% of Democratic respondents were undecided, indicating a more open and competitive party.

The February 21–22 survey included 1,000 likely voters countrywide. Results could be slightly off due to its credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points. As campaigns begin and candidates reveal their plans, voter opinions might change quickly, as with any early survey.

Nobody from either party has declared a 2028 presidential candidacy. President Trump, who is term-limited, has not backed a Republican successor. However, he has publicly highlighted Vance and Rubio as prospective leaders, boosting their early poll numbers.

Political observers remark that early surveys generally measure name recognition and presence rather than campaign platforms. Still, a primary field lead of more than 30% is substantial, especially this early in the election season. The results imply Vance is the early favorite among Republican voters if he runs.

The data suggests a more competitive and uncertain future for Democrats. Nearly 25% of Democrats are uncertain, and subsequent announcements might change the field.

This polling gives an early indication of voter attitude as the 2028 election cycle approaches. While much can change before elections, the latest Republican Party numbers show one candidate leading.