Gavin Newsom’s Momentum Shakes Up 2028 Democratic Primary Landscape

A polling surge makes California Governor Gavin Newsom a leading 2028 Democratic presidential candidate. In the newest Emerson College study, Newsom leads the Democratic field with 25% support, up from 12% two months earlier. He leads Democratic candidates by 13 points, raising concerns about his national influence.

Kamala Harris had 11% and Pete Buttigieg 16%. Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez polled 5% and 4%, Data shows Newsom has separated himself from party leaders.

Voter demographics show Newsom’s growth. His popularity climbed from 6% to 18% under 30 and 13% to 31% over 70. Black and white voter support rose from 9% to 23% and 10% to 24%. Significant advances in numerous categories suggest his political style is gaining national traction.

Despite his high-profile disagreements with Trump and MAGA supporters, Newsom’s popularity has soared. Conservatives say Newsom mimics Trump’s inflammatory social media posts. Still, it has raised his profile and maintained him in national political talks.

California’s efforts to thwart Texas Republican strategies to create GOP-friendly congressional districts and online debating have garnered attention. His efforts may affect 2026 midterm redistricting and House power.

Democrats see Newsom’s rise as party momentum, while Republicans focus on their frontrunner. Vice President JD Vance had 52% Republican support for 2028 in the same survey. Rubio was 9% behind DeSantis 7%.

In a one-on-one poll, Newsom and Vance matched at 44%, with 12% uncertain. Vance had a slim edge last month, but Newsom’s rise suggests a close battle.

According to analysts, Newsom’s strength is among younger Democrats who are influencing the party. His appeal among diverse voting groups, especially older voters, suggests his message may be overcoming political divides better than expected for a lefty.

An August 25–26 1,000-registered voter poll has a three-point margin of error. Data from almost three years before the 2028 election show how early maneuvering and national prominence can affect politics. Policy decisions and confrontations with Trump and MAGA backers have propelled Newsom to the Democratic frontrunner.

Sources

Emerson College Polling
U.S. Political News Outlets