Poll Shows Undecided Independents Could Decide New Jersey Governor’s Race
Independent voters may be most critical in New Jersey’s high-stakes governor’s race this November, according to a new statewide survey. The study shows huge divisions over former President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement, but Republican Jack Ciattarelli is gaining ground against Democratic Mikie Sherrill with uncertain independents.
A Rutgers-Eagleton poll indicated that both parties’ partisan voters are mostly aligned. Republicans support MAGA, but Democrats oppose it. Frequently winning state elections, independents are more complicated. Almost 75% of MAGA members back Ciattarelli. Independents who oppose MAGA support Sherrill by two-thirds. With 25% of independents undecided, both parties need to target them in the final stretch.
Ashley Koning, Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling director, said Ciattarelli likes uncertainty. MAGA-leaning independents favor the Republican, while MAGA-rejecting independents are inconsistent. Even Trump neutrals are more likely to support Ciattarelli or remain undecided than Sherrill. This demonstrates independents’ effect on the next governor.
The survey reveals New Jersey’s partisan divide. Nearly half of statewide voters oppose MAGA, while 25% favor it. The others are in between, suggesting that MAGA may not dominate the state’s political identity, but important citizens still support it. That allows Ciattarelli to court loyal Republicans and independents who support his campaign.
Like Garden State citizens, Ciattarelli and Sherrill have focused their campaigns on affordability and the high cost of living. Both candidates are reaching across party lines as New Jerseyans deal with property taxes, housing expenses, and rising expenditures. However, the survey suggests that Ciattarelli’s blend of Republican and independent outreach may give him an edge on Election Day.
New Jersey Republicans have done best as moderates and center-right leaders, not nationalists. However, the survey reveals that the state’s GOP base has generally supported Trump, pushing candidates to weigh loyalists and swing votes. Ciattarelli seems to be better at this than Sherrill, especially among indecisive independents.
Both camps face tough voting odds with many independents unsure. Sherrill must win over undecided voters with her affordability and state leadership credentials and recruit Democratic-leaning independents. Ciattarelli must ignite Republicans and persuade hesitant independents he is best.
As New Jersey prepares for its most watched election in years, independents may choose the governor. With both candidates focusing on economic issues and the MAGA movement looming, November’s outcome may hinge on undecided voters’ last-week decisions.
Sources
Rutgers-Eagleton Poll
Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling
